July 2023 Portfolio: VNQ 8%, VFH 8%, VAW 8%, VXF 8%, VTMGX 8%, VCR 8%, VGT 8%, GLD 8%, RINF 8%, VWEAX 7%, VIS 7%, VOX 7%, VWETX 7%.
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August 2023 Portfolio: VNQ 8%, VFH 8%, VAW 8%, VXF 8%, VTMGX 8%, VCR 8%, VGT 8%, GLD 8%, RINF 8%, VWEAX 7%, VIS 7%, VOX 7%, VWETX 7%.
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September 2023 Portfolio: VNQ 8%, VFH 8%, VAW 8%, VXF 8%, VTMGX 8%, VCR 8%, VGT 8%, GLD 8%, RINF 8%, VWEAX 7%, VIS 7%, VDE 7%, VWETX 7%.
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October 2023 Portfolio: VFH 10%, VAW 10%, VXF 10%, VGT 10%, VOX 10%, GLD 10%, VWEAX 10%, VIS 10%, VDE 10%, VWETX 10%.
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I plan to start using a short-term technical model in combination with the current longer term fundamental model to select this portfolio. I plan to post a date and the selected portfolio. This approach may generate several trades a month. Questions, comments or suggestions are encouraged, or post your own suggested portfolio here. I cannot foresee how this will work out, and I may need to make corrections along the way.
10/19/2023
VFH 10%, VAW 10%, VXF 10%, VGT 10%, VOX 10%, GLD 10%, VWEAX 10%, VDE 10%, VCR 10%, BND 10%.
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List of investments to be considered:
BND %,VMNFX %,VCMDX %,VWEAX %,VEA %,VXF %,VCR%,VDC %,VDE %,VFH %,VHT %,VIS %,VGT %,VAW %,VNQ %,VOX %,VPU %,RINF %,PFIX %,GLD %,UUP %,Cash(BIL or Sweep Account) %.
10/31/2023
BND 20%, VMNFX 0%, VCMDX 0%, VWEAX 20%, VEA 0%, VXF 0%, VCR 0%, VDC 0%, VDE 10%, VFH 0%, VHT 10%, VIS 0%, VGT 0%, VAW 0%, VNQ 0%, VOX 10%, VPU 0%, RINF 0%, PFIX 0%, GLD 0%, UUP 0%, Cash (BIL or Sweep Account) 30%.
I have a taxable account at Vanguard. It is important to me to minimize trading and maximize investment liquidity and diversity of choices in the account. I am going to try to trade only in investments available from Vanguard. I am including a commodity fund with the bond and equity funds in the list of choices because we have likely entered a point in the long (Kondratieff) economic wave where commodity prices and interest rates may have a tendency to rise for a couple of decades. I refer you to “The Kondratieff Wave” by Shuman and Rosenau and “Business structure, economic cycles, and national policy” by Jay W. Forrester if you wish to do additional research. I am also focusing on equity funds that I consider to be the most predictable of the GICS Sectors. Questions and comments are encouraged. My goal is to make portfolio construction a community project.
11/06/2023
BND 40%, VMNFX 20%, VCMDX 0%, VGT 0%, VOX 0%, VPU 0%, Cash (BIL or Sweep Account) 40%
11/15/2023
BND 0%, VMNFX 20%, VCMDX 40%, VGT 0%, VOX 0%, VPU 0%, Cash (BIL or Sweep Account) 40%
12/28/2023
BND 0%, VMNFX 20%, VCMDX 20%, VGT 20%, VOX 0%, VPU 0%, Cash (BIL or Sweep Account) 40%
Hi just following up in this. How did your returns go for 2023 ( if you care to share them)
Thank you for your interest. I do not track this particular portfolio because I do not have an appropriate benchmark. The only portfolio I tracked in 2023 at Sharesight is “Beat the Benchmark”. According to my calculations, that portfolio was up 24.55% and the benchmark was up 16.98% for 2023. I have just started tacking a “Brignoli” portfolio at Sharesight, but I do not have an appropriate benchmark. The “Best US ETFs” portfolio is far more conservative, and the returns would have been much lower. I do run four actual portfolios at Vanguard, Schwab and IB, but I have not settled on specific strategies at Vanguard and Schwab. I think returns should be quoted for specific strategies and compared with appropriate benchmarks if they are to mean anything.
Your returns are lagging the US 500 quite significantly in the last 12 months. If I were you I would save the effort of all those permutations and just invest in the US 500. Just saying,
If you have no benchmark to measure yourself against what’s the point? It seems quite complex what you are trying to do when you don’t know what benchmark you are measuring yourself against.
I appreciate why you say that, but I decided many years ago that I cannot expose myself to the probability of a 55% drawdown. I will not be simply buying the S&P500 that has been heavily influenced by a very small group of high-flying stocks lately. I will always give equal weight to risk. I would be interested in understanding your experience of dealing with risk. I agree an appropriate benchmark is needed. The most common benchmarks are the S&P500(SPY) and the so called 60/40 portfolio (60% SPY and 40% BND). The 60/40 portfolio has done very poorly over the last three years. We could probably have an ongoing discussion about investment strategies and risk vs. return.
There’s the equal weighted sp&p 500?
Yes, RSP. I have owned it in the past. It may perform similarly to the GICS Sector benchmark I have created by averaging the monthly returns of the 11 GICS Sectors, but I have not checked. It alone is still far too risky for me. The maximum drawdowns of my investment portfolios were limited to about 8% during the most recent bear markets in stocks and bonds. I have a very low tolerance for losses. One should focus on RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS by calculating such parameters as Alpha and Beta and the appropriate ratios: Information, Sharpe, Treynor, Sortino or Martin for his portfolios.
I encourage anyone to track this portfolio. Compare its returns on a risk adjusted basis to other portfolios they are tracking and report their results here.
03/26/2024
BND 0%, VMNFX 20%, VCMDX 0%, VGT 20%, VOX 0%, VPU 0%, Cash (BIL or Sweep Account) 60%
04/12/2024
BND 40%, VMNFX 0%, VCMDX 0%, VGT 20%, VOX 20%, VPU 0%, Cash (BIL or Sweep Account) 20%